Predictions for 2017

Posted on December 31, 2016

Here are my predictions for 2017, such as they are. The idea is to develop the skill of prediction by making and testing them somewhat regularly. I don’t expect to do super well.

Judgment date is January 1 2018.

I’m aiming mostly for calibration, but will also compute cross entropy.

Politics

Trump takes office on inauguration day: 95%.
Trump is impeached: 15%.
Trump is murdered or survives an attempted murder: 5%.
Construction on US-Mexico border wall begins: 20%.
ACLU launches at least one major lawsuit against new federal policy: 90%.
Mass deportation program begins: 20%.
Trump’s approval rating as reported by Gallup is below 45%: 65%.
The US uses a nuclear weapon on a populated area: 5%.
Legislation requiring the weakening/backdooring of cryptography and/or computer systems in general is passed in the US: 25%.
I was going to put something about political partisanship here, but I can’t find a survey that happens regularly enough.

Technology

Someone writes a web framework for Idris: 65%.
Conditioned on my going back to work on it, Idris gets a new build system: 90%.
I go back to work on it: 65%. (I make no estimate on whether anyone else will rewrite it)
There are at least two more papers published about/using Idris: 90%.
A program written in Idris gets substantial use outside of the Idris community: 10%.
There are at least 36 jobs found when searching for Haskell on Stack Overflow Jobs. (18 at time of writing): 75%.
There are at least 30 jobs found when searching for Tensorflow on Stack Overflow jobs. (7 at time of writing): 75%.
There will be at least one large breach of user data reported at Yahoo, Facebook or Google/GMail: 80%.

Personal life

I will be living in the same house: 15%.
I will be living in the same metropolitan area: 35%.
I will have a job programming: 80%.
I will have any job at all: 95%.
I will have more average positive social interaction per time, excluding work: 80%.
My weight will be less than or equal to 180 lbs: 70%.

Personal work

PDXFunc attendance will increase at least 50%: 75%.
I will publish software written mostly or entirely by me, outside of work, that has at least 5 users: 85%.
The software quality survey will be online or completed: 80%.
The collection of explanatory variables for the software quality study will have begun: 70%.
I will have published conclusions from the study: 50%.
The conclusions will be valid and actionable: 35%.
Anybody other than me will take them into consideration: 13%.

Media

No full length Half-Life game will be released: 95%.
No announcement of same: 70%.
Steven Universe is still airing: 85%.
At least one gameplay patch for Dota 2: 90%.